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經濟學家:美國經濟已經進入了恢復期

历年上证指数: 經濟學家:美國經濟已經進入了恢復期

Lance Lambert 2020年06月08日
一位經濟學家預測,失業率會在6月出現下滑,但至少在9月前依然會高于10%。

2019沪指年线位置 www.839841.tw

圖片來源:GettyImages

至少有一名知名經濟學家認為,我們已經觸碰到了新冠疫情衰退的谷底。

Moody’s Analytics的首席經濟學家馬克?贊迪稱:“我認為衰退已經結束。衰退在5月就結束了,我們將在6月看到就業出現增長,我們進入了恢復期?!?

贊迪對《財富》雜志說,于3月開始的大規模收緊在5月底出現了反轉,因為各州都開始放松對關停的限制。領取失業救助金的美國民眾數量上周減少了390萬,其總數降至2100萬人。贊迪預測,勞工部發布的數據會顯示,美國領取失業保險金人數再次出現大幅下滑。

380萬的救助金領取人數降幅意味著招聘和再招聘已經回歸經濟。然而,我們還有很長一段路要走,因為3月14日那一周僅有180萬民眾在領取失業保險,而在5月9日這個數字達到了2490萬的峰值。

各大公司在5月取消的崗位少于預期。上周三,美國自動數據處理公司(ADP)的報告稱,5月私人市場職位減少了近280萬個,遠低于一些經濟學家預測的800多萬個,更是大大低于4月的1960萬個。

然而,走出經濟增長和活動不斷下滑的衰退期、進入恢復期并不意味著經濟風暴已經過去。經濟可能會需要數個月乃至數年的時間才能恢復。贊迪預測,失業率會在6月出現下滑,但至少在9月前依然會高于10%。

贊迪表示:“要走出衰退期,我們還得經歷很長的時間。這是自上世紀30年代以來最嚴重的下滑。然而,我們已經越過了谷底,這意味著衰退已經結束?!保ú聘恢形耐?

譯者:Feb

至少有一名知名經濟學家認為,我們已經觸碰到了新冠疫情衰退的谷底。

Moody’s Analytics的首席經濟學家馬克?贊迪稱:“我認為衰退已經結束。衰退在5月就結束了,我們將在6月看到就業出現增長,我們進入了恢復期?!?

贊迪對《財富》雜志說,于3月開始的大規模收緊在5月底出現了反轉,因為各州都開始放松對關停的限制。領取失業救助金的美國民眾數量上周減少了390萬,其總數降至2100萬人。贊迪預測,勞工部發布的數據會顯示,美國領取失業保險金人數再次出現大幅下滑。

380萬的救助金領取人數降幅意味著招聘和再招聘已經回歸經濟。然而,我們還有很長一段路要走,因為3月14日那一周僅有180萬民眾在領取失業保險,而在5月9日這個數字達到了2490萬的峰值。

各大公司在5月取消的崗位少于預期。上周三,美國自動數據處理公司(ADP)的報告稱,5月私人市場職位減少了近280萬個,遠低于一些經濟學家預測的800多萬個,更是大大低于4月的1960萬個。

然而,走出經濟增長和活動不斷下滑的衰退期、進入恢復期并不意味著經濟風暴已經過去。經濟可能會需要數個月乃至數年的時間才能恢復。贊迪預測,失業率會在6月出現下滑,但至少在9月前依然會高于10%。

贊迪表示:“要走出衰退期,我們還得經歷很長的時間。這是自上世紀30年代以來最嚴重的下滑。然而,我們已經越過了谷底,這意味著衰退已經結束?!保ú聘恢形耐?

譯者:Feb

On Friday the unemployment rate for May will be released, and it's expected to be around 20%, up from 3.5% in February. But even as we await that Great Depression-level jobless rate, at least one prominent economist thinks we have already hit the bottom of the COVID-19 recession.

"I think the recession is over. The recession ended in May, and in June we'll see job growth," says Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. "We are in recovery."

The massive contractions that started in March reversed in late May as states began to loosen up on their shutdowns, Zandi told Fortune. The number of Americans on unemployment benefits fell 3.9 million last week to a total of 21 million receiving benefits. And Zandi forecast the Department of Labor's data release will show another massive decline in the number of Americans on unemployment insurance.

A 3.8 million decline in the number of Americans on state unemployment rolls points to hiring and rehiring in the economy. However, we have a long way to go—given only 1.8 million people were on unemployment insurance the week of March 14, a number that peaked at 24.9 million the week of May 9.

And companies eliminated fewer jobs than expected in May. On last Wednesday, ADP reported private payroll fell by almost 2.8 million jobs in May. That was well below the more than 8 million some economists expected, and far under the 19.6 million lost jobs in April.

But being out of the recession phase—when economic growth and activity are declining—and into the recovery phase doesn't mean the economic storm has passed. The economy could take months or years to recover. Zandi foresees the unemployment rate falling in June, but staying above 10% until at least September.

"We have a long way to dig out of this. It is the most severe downturn since the 1930s. But we are coming off the bottom, and that is the end of the recession," Zandi says.

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