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愛彼迎訂單大漲,看來城里人都憋壞了

大学生股票分析范文: 愛彼迎訂單大漲,看來城里人都憋壞了

Olivia Carville, 彭博社 2020年06月11日
近期度假的人多得讓人驚訝,也讓這個三月以來近乎停滯的行業初見生機。

2019沪指年线位置 www.839841.tw

大批焦躁不安的城市人正在逃離疫情時期的避難所,擰開發動機,涌向附近的度假公寓,人數之多讓人驚訝,也讓這個自今年3月以來近乎停滯的行業初見生機。

“人們已經被困在家里好幾個月了,每個人都想走出房門,這一點顯而易見?!卑擻ˋirbnb Inc.)的首席執行官布萊恩·切斯基在一次采訪中表示?!暗遣灰歡ㄏ胱苫?,也還沒有做好準備出國?!?/p>

自5月17日至6月3日期間,總部位于舊金山的共享住宿公司愛彼迎在美國的預訂量高于2019年同期,其他國家的國內旅游也出現了類似增長。該公司在其他國家的國內預定需求也在增加,其中包括德國、葡萄牙、韓國、新西蘭等。艾派迪(Expedia Group Inc.)旗下的Vrbo和繽客(Booking Holdings Inc.)等業界其他公司的國內度假短租住宿預定量也出現了大幅增長。

根據Cowen & Co.公司的分析師凱文·科普曼于6月8日發布的報告,在美國,Vrbo的搜索量比去年同期有所上升,愛彼迎的搜索量僅下降了10%左右。然而,酒店業及艾派迪整體品牌并沒有因為夏天的到來得到喘息,搜索量仍然下降了超60%。

切斯基說,以前要提前幾個月計劃的國際旅行現在被提前一天就能預訂的說走就走的自駕游取代,原本兩天的周末游變成了好幾個星期。以前,紐約人可能會在6月去巴黎待上一個禮拜。現在他們準備去卡茨基爾住上一個月。他說:“在家辦公正逐漸變成在任何一個人的家里辦公?!?/p>

不過,有反彈就意味著低起點。新冠肺炎疫情導致旅游業遭受重創。線上旅行社經歷了前所未有的大規模訂單取消,經歷了航空客運量暴跌95%,苦苦支撐。愛彼迎和貓途鷹(Tripadvisor Inc.)裁員四分之一,切斯基在上個月表示,愛彼迎今年的營收預計將是2019年的一半。繽客則不得不申請政府援助。繽客于上周發布的年度股東報告中,首席執行官格倫·福格爾表示,新冠肺炎疫情對全球旅游業的影響將超過“9·11”恐怖襲擊、非典和2008年金融?;淖芎?。

但被壓抑了好幾個月的需求釋放帶來了夏季訂房數量的激增。據切斯基介紹,愛彼迎現在掛牌的房屋數量比疫情前還要多。該公司表示,愛彼迎上美國熱門目的地幾乎清一色都是度假短租住宿的傳統市場,比如南加州的大熊湖(Big Bear Lake)、田納西-北卡羅來納邊境沿線的斯莫基山(Smoky Mountains),以及得克薩斯州的阿蘭薩斯港(Port Aransas)。

愛彼迎出人意料的恢復速度讓它的2020年上市計劃仍然可能實現。切斯基原計劃提交的上市時間是3月31日,但因為疫情引發的市場動蕩而受阻,人們因此猜測其上市或將擱置至明年。不過,切斯基說今年上市仍然是其中一種選擇。他說:“我們不排除今年上市的可能性,但也不保證?!痹謐罱宦炙僥既謐手?,愛彼迎的估值是310億美元,不過最近為支撐公司財務發行的債券大大降低了這個數字。

自疫情爆發以來,愛彼迎上200英里以內目的地(322公里——加一箱油可以開個來回)的預訂量占比從2月的三分之一上升到5月的一半以上。切斯基說,后疫情時代的旅行正在轉變,“從飛機變成汽車,從大城市變成小地方,從酒店變成家庭住宅”。

隨著佛羅里達和緬因等熱門旅游州重新開放,Vrbo也看到了類似的趨勢。Vrbo總裁杰夫·赫斯特表示,旅游目的地一旦重新開放,預定數量“立刻大漲”。Vrbo的營收占艾派迪總營收的20%。赫斯特說:“在任何一座大城市周圍畫一個半徑250公里的圓圈,對于圓圈里任何一個有水、有山或國家公園的地方,它周圍的住宿都正在被預訂一空?!?/p>

農村地區的酒店沒那么普遍。赫斯特說,而且即使酒店很多,游客也更喜歡待在度假屋里,這樣他們能夠在自己的廚房里做飯,可以控制進進出出的人,避開大堂等人流密集的公共區域。為了拯救夏季業績,愛彼迎和Vrbo都推出了一些增強顧客信心的措施,比如靈活的預定取消政策和新的衛生標準。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師布萊恩·諾瓦克于上周在一份報告中寫道:“我們看到,替代式住宿行業的復蘇速度快于酒店業?!蓖蠔攔始牛?)、凱悅酒店集團(Hyatt Hotels Corp.)和希爾頓全球(Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.)等酒店集團今年的股價已經下跌超過20%,相比之下,艾派迪和繽客的跌幅為14%。

太陽信托(Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Inc.)的分析師內福德·可汗表示,人們渴望前往海濱小鎮或山村這種開闊的地方,從而引發了度假短租住宿行業的反彈?!八孀湃嗣侵鸞ジ頁雒?,敢在其他地方住上幾晚,又大多選擇民宿或別墅,因此我們可以看到這種反彈在一點點展開?!?/p>

繽客的首席營銷官阿爾然·戴克說,在谷歌上,度假短租的搜索量與去年持平,而酒店的搜索量則出現下降。他稱,消費者的喜好和一年前已經完全不同。明顯有更多的用戶使用了該公司的“愿望列表”功能,列表里他們對國內住宿的興趣超過了國外住宿。他說,事實上,該公司國內旅游業務的比重已經從去年同期的45%上升到70%以上。

航空出行的客戶需求在幾近崩潰后也顯示出了一些復蘇的苗頭。根據美國運輸安全管理局(Transportation Security Administration)的數據,6月4日,美國旅客人數攀升至391,882人,為3月22日以來的最高水平。但過去七天的日均旅客人數仍比去年同期減少了87%。美國航空集團(American Airlines Group Inc.)在上周四表示,7月的航班數量將比本月增加74%,但不過是去年同期的40%左右,不過相比之下,6月運力是去年同期的30%。

切斯基說:“還要再等一段時間,人們才能重新開始出國旅行、乘機旅行或商務旅行?!彼誑悸槍舊鮮械氖慮槭?,想的最大的問題是,近期預訂量飆升的現象能否成為一種可持續的趨勢。他說:“長期來看,問題是一年或五年之后會是什么樣子,這真是誰都說不準?!痹謔諧∥榷ㄖ?,切斯基都不會歡欣鼓舞?!拔矣幸桓鱸?,即使在最黑暗的時刻,也不能讓自己情緒過于低落,因為那只是一時的?!彼?,“既然不會太低落,就也不會太興奮?!保ú聘恢形耐?/p>

譯者:Agatha

大批焦躁不安的城市人正在逃離疫情時期的避難所,擰開發動機,涌向附近的度假公寓,人數之多讓人驚訝,也讓這個自今年3月以來近乎停滯的行業初見生機。

“人們已經被困在家里好幾個月了,每個人都想走出房門,這一點顯而易見?!卑擻ˋirbnb Inc.)的首席執行官布萊恩·切斯基在一次采訪中表示?!暗遣灰歡ㄏ胱苫?,也還沒有做好準備出國?!?/p>

自5月17日至6月3日期間,總部位于舊金山的共享住宿公司愛彼迎在美國的預訂量高于2019年同期,其他國家的國內旅游也出現了類似增長。該公司在其他國家的國內預定需求也在增加,其中包括德國、葡萄牙、韓國、新西蘭等。艾派迪(Expedia Group Inc.)旗下的Vrbo和繽客(Booking Holdings Inc.)等業界其他公司的國內度假短租住宿預定量也出現了大幅增長。

根據Cowen & Co.公司的分析師凱文·科普曼于6月8日發布的報告,在美國,Vrbo的搜索量比去年同期有所上升,愛彼迎的搜索量僅下降了10%左右。然而,酒店業及艾派迪整體品牌并沒有因為夏天的到來得到喘息,搜索量仍然下降了超60%。

切斯基說,以前要提前幾個月計劃的國際旅行現在被提前一天就能預訂的說走就走的自駕游取代,原本兩天的周末游變成了好幾個星期。以前,紐約人可能會在6月去巴黎待上一個禮拜。現在他們準備去卡茨基爾住上一個月。他說:“在家辦公正逐漸變成在任何一個人的家里辦公?!?/p>

不過,有反彈就意味著低起點。新冠肺炎疫情導致旅游業遭受重創。線上旅行社經歷了前所未有的大規模訂單取消,經歷了航空客運量暴跌95%,苦苦支撐。愛彼迎和貓途鷹(Tripadvisor Inc.)裁員四分之一,切斯基在上個月表示,愛彼迎今年的營收預計將是2019年的一半。繽客則不得不申請政府援助。繽客于上周發布的年度股東報告中,首席執行官格倫·福格爾表示,新冠肺炎疫情對全球旅游業的影響將超過“9·11”恐怖襲擊、非典和2008年金融?;淖芎?。

但被壓抑了好幾個月的需求釋放帶來了夏季訂房數量的激增。據切斯基介紹,愛彼迎現在掛牌的房屋數量比疫情前還要多。該公司表示,愛彼迎上美國熱門目的地幾乎清一色都是度假短租住宿的傳統市場,比如南加州的大熊湖(Big Bear Lake)、田納西-北卡羅來納邊境沿線的斯莫基山(Smoky Mountains),以及得克薩斯州的阿蘭薩斯港(Port Aransas)。

愛彼迎出人意料的恢復速度讓它的2020年上市計劃仍然可能實現。切斯基原計劃提交的上市時間是3月31日,但因為疫情引發的市場動蕩而受阻,人們因此猜測其上市或將擱置至明年。不過,切斯基說今年上市仍然是其中一種選擇。他說:“我們不排除今年上市的可能性,但也不保證?!痹謐罱宦炙僥既謐手?,愛彼迎的估值是310億美元,不過最近為支撐公司財務發行的債券大大降低了這個數字。

自疫情爆發以來,愛彼迎上200英里以內目的地(322公里——加一箱油可以開個來回)的預訂量占比從2月的三分之一上升到5月的一半以上。切斯基說,后疫情時代的旅行正在轉變,“從飛機變成汽車,從大城市變成小地方,從酒店變成家庭住宅”。

隨著佛羅里達和緬因等熱門旅游州重新開放,Vrbo也看到了類似的趨勢。Vrbo總裁杰夫·赫斯特表示,旅游目的地一旦重新開放,預定數量“立刻大漲”。Vrbo的營收占艾派迪總營收的20%。赫斯特說:“在任何一座大城市周圍畫一個半徑250公里的圓圈,對于圓圈里任何一個有水、有山或國家公園的地方,它周圍的住宿都正在被預訂一空?!?/p>

農村地區的酒店沒那么普遍。赫斯特說,而且即使酒店很多,游客也更喜歡待在度假屋里,這樣他們能夠在自己的廚房里做飯,可以控制進進出出的人,避開大堂等人流密集的公共區域。為了拯救夏季業績,愛彼迎和Vrbo都推出了一些增強顧客信心的措施,比如靈活的預定取消政策和新的衛生標準。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師布萊恩·諾瓦克于上周在一份報告中寫道:“我們看到,替代式住宿行業的復蘇速度快于酒店業?!蓖蠔攔始牛?)、凱悅酒店集團(Hyatt Hotels Corp.)和希爾頓全球(Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.)等酒店集團今年的股價已經下跌超過20%,相比之下,艾派迪和繽客的跌幅為14%。

太陽信托(Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Inc.)的分析師內福德·可汗表示,人們渴望前往海濱小鎮或山村這種開闊的地方,從而引發了度假短租住宿行業的反彈?!八孀湃嗣侵鸞ジ頁雒?,敢在其他地方住上幾晚,又大多選擇民宿或別墅,因此我們可以看到這種反彈在一點點展開?!?/p>

繽客的首席營銷官阿爾然·戴克說,在谷歌上,度假短租的搜索量與去年持平,而酒店的搜索量則出現下降。他稱,消費者的喜好和一年前已經完全不同。明顯有更多的用戶使用了該公司的“愿望列表”功能,列表里他們對國內住宿的興趣超過了國外住宿。他說,事實上,該公司國內旅游業務的比重已經從去年同期的45%上升到70%以上。

航空出行的客戶需求在幾近崩潰后也顯示出了一些復蘇的苗頭。根據美國運輸安全管理局(Transportation Security Administration)的數據,6月4日,美國旅客人數攀升至391,882人,為3月22日以來的最高水平。但過去七天的日均旅客人數仍比去年同期減少了87%。美國航空集團(American Airlines Group Inc.)在上周四表示,7月的航班數量將比本月增加74%,但不過是去年同期的40%左右,不過相比之下,6月運力是去年同期的30%。

切斯基說:“還要再等一段時間,人們才能重新開始出國旅行、乘機旅行或商務旅行?!彼誑悸槍舊鮮械氖慮槭?,想的最大的問題是,近期預訂量飆升的現象能否成為一種可持續的趨勢。他說:“長期來看,問題是一年或五年之后會是什么樣子,這真是誰都說不準?!痹謔諧∥榷ㄖ?,切斯基都不會歡欣鼓舞?!拔矣幸桓鱸?,即使在最黑暗的時刻,也不能讓自己情緒過于低落,因為那只是一時的?!彼?,“既然不會太低落,就也不會太興奮?!保ú聘恢形耐?/p>

譯者:Agatha

Antsy city dwellers seeking to escape their COVID-19 refuges are road-tripping to nearby vacation rentals in surprisingly strong numbers, showing the first signs of life for an industry that essentially ground to a halt in March.

“People, after having been stuck in their homes for a few months, do want to get out of their houses; that’s really, really clear,” Airbnb Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Chesky said in an interview. “But they don’t necessarily want to get on an airplane and are not yet comfortable leaving their countries.”

Airbnb saw more nights booked for U.S. listings between May 17 and June 3 than the same period in 2019, and a similar boost in domestic travel globally. The San Francisco-based home-share company is seeing an increase in demand for domestic bookings in countries from Germany to Portugal, South Korea, New Zealand and more. Other companies, including Expedia Group Inc.’s Vrbo and Booking Holdings Inc. are also seeing a jump in domestic vacation-rental reservations.

U.S. searches for Vrbo are now up compared to this time last year, according to a note by Cowen & Co. analyst Kevin Kopelman on June 8, and Airbnb queries are down only around 10%. However, hotels and the wider Expedia brand have yet to get any summer relief with searches still down more than 60%.

International sojourns usually planned months in advance are being replaced with impulsive road trips booked a day before and weekend getaways are turning into weeks-long respites, Chesky said. Previously, a New Yorker might have headed to Paris for a week in June. Now they are going to the Catskills for a month. “Work from home is becoming working from any home,” he said.

Still, any rebound is coming from a very low base. The travel sector was gutted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Online travel agencies struggled to withstand unprecedented cancellations and air travel passenger traffic that fell 95%. Airbnb and Tripadvisor Inc. cut a quarter of their workforces and Chesky said last month that he expects revenue this year to be half of 2019’s level. Booking was forced to apply for government aid. In an annual shareholder report last week, Booking CEO Glenn Fogel said the pandemic would impact global travel more than the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the SARS epidemic and the 2008 financial crisis combined.

But months of pent-up demand is leading to a rush of summer reservations. Airbnb has more listings today than it did before the crisis, according to Chesky. The top destinations in the U.S. on Airbnb are almost exclusively traditional vacation rental markets such as Big Bear Lake in southern California, the Smoky Mountains, along the Tennessee-North Carolina border, and Port Aransas in Texas, according to the company.

The unexpected speed of the comeback has kept Airbnb’s plans for a 2020 public market debut afloat. Chesky had originally planned to file paperwork for an offering March 31, but was waylaid by the pandemic-related market turmoil that led to speculation the listing would be shelved until next year. However, Chesky says it’s still an option. “We’re not ruling out going public this year and we’re not committing to it,” he said. Airbnb was valued at $31 billion in its most recent private fund-raising round, though recent debt issuance to shore up its finances have significantly reduced that valuation.

Since the pandemic began, the percentage of bookings on Airbnb within 200 miles (322 kilometers—a round trip travelers can typically complete on one tank of gas—has grown from a third in February to more than 50% in May. Travel in a post-COVID world is shifting “from airplane to car, big city to small location, hotel to home,” Chesky said.

Vrbo is seeing similar trends as popular tourist states like Florida and Maine reopen. There’s an “immediate pop” as soon as a destination opens, said Jeff Hurst, president of Vrbo, which accounts for about 20% of Expedia’s total revenue. “If you draw a 250- mile circle around any major metro—every place where you see water in there or mountains or national parks, the homes around it are what’s starting to get booked up,” Hurst said.

Hotels aren’t as prevalent in more rural locations. And even where they are, travelers are preferring to stay in vacation homes so they can cook in their own kitchens, control who comes and goes and avoid crowded common areas like lobbies, Hurst said. To help salvage the summer season, Airbnb and Vrbo have enforced confidence-boosting policies that include flexible cancellations and new standards for cleaning.

“We have seen a faster recovery within alternative accommodations than in hotels,” Morgan Stanley analyst Brain Nowak wrote in a note last week. Shares in hotel companies such as Marriott International Inc., Hyatt Hotels Corp. and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. have dropped by more than 20% this year, compared with Expedia and Booking, which have fallen as much as 14%.

People are eager for open spaces like beach towns or mountain villages, which is sparking the vacation rental rebound, said Naved Khan, an analyst at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. “Little by little we are seeing it unfold before us as people are feeling bold enough to venture out and stay at another place for a couple of nights and most of the time these places are homes and villas.”

Searches for vacation rentals on Google are about at the same level as last year, while hotel searches are down, said Booking Holdings Chief Marketing Officer Arjan Dijk. Consumer appetite has completely changed from a year ago, he said. Significantly more users are signing on to the company’s wish list function and indicating interest in domestic homes over international ones. In fact, the company has seen its business shift to more than 70% domestic travel from 45% the same period last year, he said.

Demand for air travel is also showing some early signs of life after all but collapsing. Daily passenger numbers in the U.S. climbed to 391,882 on June 4, the highest since March 22, according to the Transportation Security Administration. But the average daily total over the past seven days was still 87% less than during the same period a year ago. American Airlines Group Inc. said it would boost July flights 74% compared with this month, though the number of flights in July will be about 40% of capacity a year earlier, compared with 30% in June, the airline said Thursday.

“It’s going to be awhile before people start crossing borders, getting into planes or traveling for business,” Chesky said. The big question on his mind now, as he weighs taking his startup public, is whether the spike in recent bookings turns into a sustainable trend. “The long-term question is what does it look like in a year or five years and that’s really anyone’s guess,” he said. Chesky won’t be celebrating until the market stabilizes. “I had a rule that even in our darkest of hours I wouldn’t get too low because that’s just a moment in time,” he said. “And if I can’t get too low, then I can’t get too up.”

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